Fallon's Town Talk: A summer of high political drama takes another turn

It has already been a political summer of high drama with the promise of more shenanigans to come. Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw from the US presidential race was inevitable but sensational nonetheless. At home, the momentum towards an autumn general election is inexorable with selection conventions brought forward and speculation intensifying about who the candidates will be in Roscommon/Galway.

The British general election came and went in a blur, despite having a six-week build-up. The differences with Irish elections were manifold. It was refreshing and even bewildering to watch Labour leader Keir Starmer succeed Rishi Sunak the morning after the election. The contrast with the interminable four-month hiatus before a government was formed after the 2020 Irish election was striking.

The biggest disparity is the first past the post electoral system compared to Ireland’s complex but fairer proportional representation. Whatever you think of Nigel Farage, his Reform Party getting just four seats with over 14 percent of the vote when the Liberal Democrats got 71 seats with 12 percent is simply wrong. Of course, for years the Conservatives and right-wingers like Farage have cherished first past the post precisely because the British format is different to everywhere else. Now, with the shoe on the other foot, perhaps they will lead the move for change.

Another laudable feature was something that would have been once taken for granted: the seamless transfer of power. Sunak handed over to Starmer with dignity while praising his successor. It was a reminder of what used to be standard, civilised practice in democratic politics before the attempted coup by supporters of Donald Trump when he refused to accept the result of the 2020 US presidential election.

Now, the next US presidential election looms and it looks as if Trump, fresh from a miraculous escape from an assassination attempt made all the more shocking by being shown repeatedly on television and social media, is heading back to the White House. Less than four months remain until election day on November 5th but the dramatic events of the last month have propelled Trump into the role of hot favourite to regain the presidency.

It is less than a month since Joe Biden’s stunning debate debacle, which started the fateful slide to last Sunday’s momentous decision. Since then one major development after another has broken Trump’s way, most notably the courts finding in the Republican candidate’s favour in landmark cases the Democrats had been hoping would scupper his campaign.

Apart from political anoraks, most people only tune into election campaigns as polling day looms. Many observers, in the US, Ireland and around the world, were only giving their full attention to Biden and Trump for the first time in this campaign at the debate. Most of the audience, especially US voters, were flabbergasted by what they witnessed.

In January 2021 it was natural for Biden’s advisors to assume that the American electorate would never again consider Trump after the riot on the Capitol by his supporters. However, within one month of the attack it was clear that Trump’s stranglehold on the Republican Party was as tight as ever.

The debate laid bare the complacency and hubris Biden’s inner-circle has displayed over the last 18 months. The narrative they’ve peddled is that Trump would self-destruct while also curtly dismissing any concerns about Biden’s health.

It is a modern version of the fable of the Emperor’s New Clothes. Once Biden’s frailties were exposed, it was as if it only dawned on the media and the wider public to ask how feasible it was to expect Biden to perform the role of president at the end of a potential second term when he would be 86.

For the last three years, the Democrats believed this campaign would be about Trump’s many flaws, failings that would have prevented any other candidate in modern history from running for the White House. Instead of 77-year-old Trump faltering it is the Democrats who are imploding. The ruthless way Biden’s own party has turned on him is yet another reminder of how cruel and vicious politics is.

Biden has endorsed his vice-president Kamala Harris as his replacement. Harris was a conspicuously poor campaigner in the 2020 Democratic primary race. She would not have beaten Trump in 2020 and she will have a herculean task to overcome him next November. If Harris runs and fails, people will ask why the Democrats waited until this month to face the truth about Biden’s re-election prospects when the tough decision should have been taken 12 months ago.