Fallon's Town Talk: Trump’s climbdown gives hope the world can avoid economic chaos
President Donald Trump.
You’ve got to hand it to Donald Trump: Over the last week, many people became self-professed experts about the world’s financial markets – and it’s all down to Trump. It’s like a geopolitical version of the Olympics; we watch certain sports for the first time in four years, and within 10 minutes we are authorities.
Last week, it was the Irish economy that was in the arena – and this wasn’t sport. Trump backed down on his sweeping tariffs, freezing the tariff on the EU and, by extension, Irish exports to the US at 10% for 90 days. In typical Trump fashion, he and his acolytes portrayed this pivot as part of a pre-conceived masterplan to isolate China. Hardly anyone, apart from his most myopic MAGA devotees, will swallow that.
As has been pointed out repeatedly in the chaotic few months since he returned to the White House, Trump is treating the US presidency as a reality TV show. Last week, reality intruded in the shape of the financial markets, or more particularly the bond markets.
Economic correspondents in the media earned their corn by explaining, in lay-person’s language, to an often-mystified public what was happening. The economic experts explained that the rising cost of US debt was the main trigger for Trump’s unexpected climbdown. US bonds – a form of loan used by governments to fund their spending – are traded on international debt markets.
Interest rates on 10-year US treasury bonds had been rising, contrary to what normally happens when stock prices fall and investors seek safety in treasuries. The unusual dynamic meant that at the same time the tariffs could push up prices, people would be paying more to buy homes or pay off credit card debt because of higher interest rates. Businesses would have to pay more for new loans.
The world was heading towards economic turmoil which had shades of the Crash of 2008 – except this crisis was all being caused by one man and his deluded plans. Trump has pulled back from the brink for now. The Irish government has reacted cautiously to last week’s events, warning that we’re not out of trouble yet.
Trump is still threatening to target pharmaceutical exports, which could be disastrous for Ireland. If negotiations fail during the 90-day pause, the EU retaliation to the US tariffs could also be damaging to our economy. It’s a high-wire balancing act but, for the moment, Ireland has a chance of dodging the worst.
The death of Tommy Healy last week led to widespread sadness. Tommy was a well-known and highly-regarded electrician but, for many of us, he was more prominent as a major figure in Roscommon hurling and was linked to many of the sport’s most illustrious days in the county.
He was corner-back on the Roscommon team that won the All-Ireland junior hurling title in 1974 and on the Tremane team that gained a famous victory in the 1977 Connacht club hurling final. He was also a referee of renown but was better known as the long-serving chairman of the county hurling board, an era that covered some memorable times in Roscommon hurling. Now Tommy joins two other leading officials of the era, Johnny Haughey and Mickey ‘Weeshie’ Naughton, in the great hurling pitch in the sky.
Tommy was central to one of the most famous photos in Roscommon hurling lore as he presented the Conlon Cup, the then-trophy for the county championship, to the Athleague captain, Micheál Glennon after the 1978 county final. Nothing unusual about that, you might think. The twist was Tommy was also playing and presented the cup while wearing his Tremane jersey. It said a lot about him.
A more pleasant presentation for Tommy, although one he probably forgot quickly, came when he presented the Athleague NS team with their medals for winning the Cumann na mBunscol hurling title. It was more memorable for me as it was my first medal.
One final abiding memory of Tommy is when he was selected as the linesman for the 1982 All-Ireland senior hurling final. For the Roscommon hurling community, that was a signal honour. A less relaxed person would have been forgiven for getting notions. Yet what I remember is that Tommy went to Mass in Athleague that Sunday morning as normal before turning up on our television screens a few hours later. Tommy was never a person for getting carried away. May he rest in peace.
