Analysis: Cliffhanger contest in store in Roscommon-Galway

Voters in Roscommon-Galway go the polls this Friday to decide who will fill the three seats in this constituency to represent them in the next Dáil.

This constituency, in its various geographical guises over the years, is no stranger to delivering surprises, and given the current variables at play this time around, another one can’t be ruled out.

The only thing that can be said with certainty is that in this eleven candidate race, Roscommon-Galway will have at least one new TD in the 34th Dáil following the retirement from politics of outgoing Independent Deputy, Denis Naughten.

The constituency’s geography will be significantly changed from the one that was in place for the 2020 General Election following a review of boundaries by the electoral commission.

The new constituency includes the entire county of Roscommon and a significantly smaller part of Galway. As part of the changes, 32 electoral divisions (EDs) comprising 16,330 have been transferred to the constituency of Galway East, while 18 EDs comprising 8,569 people have transferred to Roscommon-Galway from the Sligo-Leitrim constituency.

Roscommon-Galway now comprises all of County Roscommon and 16 EDs, with a population of 14,468 from the eastern part of County Galway.

In terms of predictions, the only strong consensus emerging among all political pundits, both locally and nationally, is that Michael Fitzmaurice, now a TD with Independent Ireland, is odds on to take a seat again.

Despite losing a chunk of his base, the Glinsk native is expected to replicate his performance of four years ago when he took the first seat on the first count, easily exceeding the 11,404 quota with more than 13,000 first preferences.

The real debate around the Glinsk native is whether his party will be at the negotiating table in any coalition discussions. If that transpires, could we see Fitzmaurice become the next Minister for Agriculture? Time will tell.

The other outgoing TD contesting the election is Sinn Féin ’s Claire Kerrane, who was a beneficiary of the party’s huge electoral surge in 2020.

With more than 8,000 first preferences, Kerrane won a Sinn Féin seat in Dáil Eireann for the first time in Roscommon since 1923 when Count George Noble Plunkett and Gerald Boland were elected as abstentionist Republicans. 

Kerrane has become a noted hard worker, and is considered a leading figure alongside her more seasoned party colleagues. Holding a number of frontbench portfolios since her election, the Tibohine native has built an impressive national profile.

Currently, Roscommon-Galway is the only constituency in the country that has neither a Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil TD.

The Fianna Fáil top brass are pinning their strong hopes on Ballygar doctor Martin Daly, who defeated Senator Eugene Murphy by just eight votes at convention. Well before the election was called, Daly and his huge team of canvassers had been sweeping through the constituency with pinpoint precision.

A former president of the Irish Medical Organisation, Daly’s involvement with Roscommon GAA teams for almost thirty years has also provided him with a large footprint across the constituency.

Murphy’s decision to go independent after Fianna Fáil refused to add him to the ticket alongside Daly has lent another intriguing dynamic to this election. The outgoing senator held a Dáil seat for the party from 2016 to 2020, before losing his seat to Claire Kerrane four years ago.

With Fitzmaurice, Daly and Fine Gael candidate Aisling Dolan all Galway based, the Scramogue native has been selling the Roscommon message hard on the doorsteps in the largest part of the constituency.

The challenge for him is whether his campaign can gain enough traction, including disaffected Fianna Fáil votes, to significantly boost his prospects. Murphy is also likely to be transfer friendly. He is the dark horse in this race and one to watch.

Fine Gael is running an all-female ticket. The sudden death of Cllr John Naughten just weeks after being selected as the party candidate at convention has sent shockwaves through the party. Cllr Naughten was seen as a very strong prospect of taking a seat.

The ticket now comprises outgoing Ballinalose senator Aisling Dolan and Dympna Daly-Finn from Arigna. Ms Daly-Finn lost out narrowly on a seat in the local elections earlier this year. With both candidates located at opposite ends of the constituency, they will be hoping to execute an effective voting strategy.

Dolan will know that she will have to improve considerably on her 5,466 first preferences to be in contention when the count reaches the business end.

One of the game-changers in this race will be where Denis Naughten’s 8,422 first preference votes from 2020 will land, and who will be the main beneficiary. Fine Gael will benefit but expect other leading candidates to pick up a share of those votes.

This Roscommon-Galway election has all the makings of a cliffhanger, and the outcome will start to emerge as the ballot boxes are opened at the count centre on Saturday morning in the Dr. Hyde Centre.

The full list of Roscommon-Galway candidates in alphabetical order are:

Vincent Beirne (Independent); Cormac Ó Corcoráin (Aontú); Martin Daly (Fianna Fáil); Dympna Daly Finn (Fine Gael); Aisling Dolan (Fine Gael); Michael Fitzmaurice (Independent Ireland); Claire Kerrane (Sinn Féin ); Andrew Mannion (People Before Profit-Solidarity); Eugene Murphy, (Independent); Martina O'Connor (Green Party); Alan Sweeney (The Irish People).