Fallon's Town Talk: By-election results make political landscape more confusing
Over the last few weeks, Galway West and Dublin Central have been getting the charm offensive,
By-elections catapult a constituency to centre-stage. Voters have a right to be cynical as they watch leading figures from all the major political parties swoop into their county for a few weeks. Roscommon got a taste of the jamboree in 2014 when a by-election in Roscommon/South Leitrim was needed to fill the Dáil seat left by the election of Luke ‘Ming’ Flanagan to the European Parliament.
The major parties blitzed Roscommon while ‘Prime Time’ even hosted a debate between the candidates. Ultimately, Michael Fitzmaurice won the seat and has held it ever since, after Roscommon switched partners to share a constituency with part of Galway. The political circus moved on and the voters in Roscommon were glad for their lives to return to normal.
Over the last few weeks, Galway West and Dublin Central have been getting the charm offensive, but even since 2014, the political landscape has become more fractured.
An unpopular government got the expected kicking in Dublin Central. That is the time-honoured tradition in by-elections. Yet, the identity of the beneficiary of the voters’ anger was intriguing. It wasn’t the main opposition party, Sinn Féin; instead, the seat went to Daniel Ennis of the Social Democrats, who romped to a runaway victory.
It confirms the Soc Dems as the flavour of the month with floating voters, certainly for those on the left of the political spectrum. Party leader, Holly Cairns, was in almost every photo with Ennis and she was well entitled to be there. Cairns is her party’s biggest electoral asset. Voters like her and she is able to get across left-wing policies, even veering towards hard-left at times, in a manner which isn’t abrasive.
Yet, the tidings from Galway-West were completely different. In bucking the long-established trend, Fine Gael’s Seán Kyne gained a remarkable victory and proved transfer friendly. It was a tight duel with Noel Thomas of Independent Ireland in a race that should have been a slam dunk for opposition parties.
Galway city was one of the nerve-centres of the recent fuel protests. Independent Ireland was closely associated with those protests. While Thomas polled extremely well, Independent Ireland must have thought the seat was theirs for the taking.
Kyne obviously got a huge personal vote but his performance is a major boost for FG. The transfer arrangement between FG and FF held up well. Of course, for the pact to continue to succeed in future elections, both parties need to perform respectably.
FF got drubbed in both elections. Their vote in Dublin Central was a shocking 4.2% of first preferences. In the constituency of former vote-getting machine Bertie Ahern, it was a salutary reminder that FF has lost the working-class support that was once one of its bulwarks.
Last week, I wrote that Micheál Martin’s position is probably safe because of the lack of a credible challenger and Ireland’s imminent presidency of the European Union. Nevertheless, it’s difficult to see how he can last long into next year.
The other big losers were Sinn Féin. By-elections should be manna from heaven for the leading opposition party, but SF couldn’t build up momentum in either race. It’s a throwback to other elections during this decade when opinion poll popularity didn’t translate into seats.
Mary Lou McDonald batted away questions about her leadership of the party, but it’s a strange position to be in when momentum should be building behind her to become this country’s first female Taoiseach. The mixed messages from the voters of Galway West and Dublin Central have made a confused political landscape even more complex.
It was a time of sadness in Roscommon Town and environs with the deaths at the weekend of Mick Breheny and Frank Mullen. Mick Breheny was a marvellous servant to the GAA but, first and foremost, he was a dedicated hurling person. He loved hurling and wanted the sport to thrive in Roscommon, despite it always being a struggle. Mick was thrilled when Roscommon and Roscommon Gaels did well. He was great to provide encouragement if you were involved with an underage team.
Frank Mullen was also a person who encouraged others and wanted to see them do well. Frank was probably best known to many for his distinguished service to Roscommon County Council, but I remember him from my youth as a loyal, positive fan of Athleague hurling and Fuerty football teams. Frank has lived in Ardsallagh Woods in Roscommon Town for some time and I used to enjoy meeting him when out walking and having a chat. May both men rest in peace.
