The Kettle's Boyled: And then there were three
John Murray pictured with Jim Gavin in Corcoran's Menswear during his visit to Roscommon Town om Tuesday. Also pictured is John Corcoran and Fianna Fáil councillor Marty McDermott.
When the runners go to post behind the starting rope at the Grand National, there is a moment of chaos as the horses circle and their riders try to line them up, ready for the off. It is simpler in a race where the numbers are smaller and they can be channelled through the starting gates, but when there is a crowd of horses milling around it is hard to see what is happening, or how a race might be run at all.
Presidential elections are somewhat similar, a field full of wannabee runners ranging from sometime dead certs to no-hopers, with every shade of potential in between.
This time, the field has thankfully narrowed down early, with all the no-hopers failing to get to the start line at all. In the clear light of day, they should maybe be grateful for having saved themselves the trouble, not to mention the expense and the constant vitriolic attacks that have become part of this particular political contest since the notorious 2011 election that was contested by eleven candidates, including Martin McGuinness and Dana Rosemary Scallon, if you remember it.
So, we are down to three credible candidates; there are no ‘no-hopers’ on the ticket this time.
Catherine Connolly has all the far-left support, including those who see Russia as some kind of Utopia. The ‘student politics’ side of the Labour Party is in her corner, part of a growing split within that party, and Sinn Fein cleverly held back support long enough to allow them to make Labour look foolish. Heather Humphreys is firmly in the ‘middle Ireland’ slot, a normal person that likeminded people will want to support. It is still unclear what Jim Gavin stands for, apart from the National Anthem at football games, but maybe his presence on the ticket has finally provided a space on the ballot paper long sought by many voters, the choice of ‘none of the above.’
Connolly may have damaged her early advantage in chasing broad support. Her stance on Hamas has worried people, as has the conflict between her becoming commander in chief of our defence forces and her accepting support from Sinn Féin, but maybe she will clarify that position between now and polling day.
So, my money is on Humphreys. She won’t top the poll because half the voters won’t bother to vote, but she should attract more transfers from Gavin than Connolly can. But I’ve been wrong before; in any three-horse race, a faller can change everything.
